A Look Back at 2015

In 2015, we saw the average monthly inventory decrease and the average home price increase. This has been a trend for the past couple years. Here are some statistics for 2014 and 2015 in a few selected areas:

INVENTORY 2014 Average Inventory 2015 Average Inventory Percentage Decrease
Denver 1,698 1,922 22%
Jefferson 1,405 1,252 11%
Park 321 255 21%
Clear Creek 110 75 32%
Gilpin 54 43 21%

 

SALES PRICE 2014 Average Sold Price 2015 Average Sold Price Percentage Increase
Denver $273,675 $320,612 15%
Jefferson $274,745 $315,999 14%
Park $222,088 $256,159 14%
Clear Creek $235,537 $296,140 21%
Gilpin $265,282 $291,377 9%

There are currently only 61 homes for sale in all of Clear Creek. In Denver, there are approximately 1,613; 1,117 in Jefferson County; 211 in Park County; and, 37 in Gilpin County. These numbers are hard to believe for anyone who has been tracking real estate trends in our area. The above statistics also mean that we can expect to see our real property taxes increase again in the next valuation cycle. County Assessors are keenly aware of this data.

These are historic numbers for all the areas mentioned. We continue to see the average number of homes on the market go down and the average sold price go up. We even looked at various communities in the area and we would be happy to send you the statistics if you would like them. Please email us at info@AlarisProperties.com and we will send the information for your community.

At the same time, the overall Colorado economy is strong, including one of the highest median income numbers in the country with a solid jobs report to back it up.  I have seen many write about a potential real estate bubble; however, local, regional and national economists seem to disagree. With the number of people moving to the area, combined with the solid numbers, I predict a very strong real estate market for 2016.

The one area where we received some cautionary input was from the rental market.  The overall vacancy rate for the entire Denver metro region rose from 2.9% in the second quarter (Q2) to 3.9% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2015.  In addition, the average days a vacant rental property sat on the market went from 15.2 in Q2 to 20.1 in Q3.

In the mountain metro area, homes sell relatively quickly, when homes are priced correctly. We fully expect this trend to continue because the relief of new construction neighborhoods does not reach Genesee or the Idaho Springs, Georgetown, Evergreen, Conifer, Bailey and Pine areas. There are only 12 new construction listings in these areas, compared to more than 2,000 in the greater Denver area.

We had a client in Georgetown ask whether they should take their home off the market for the winter. Conventional wisdom would suggest we should do that. However, with very few properties on the market, it would be foolish to take any home off the market for anyone serious about selling. In fact, those thinking of selling in the mountain metro area could benefit greatly by doing so now or in the near future as buyer demand drives up the listing price and property tends to sell relatively fast.

It may surprise you to know that there are 150 new home communities in the greater Denver metro region. New home builders understand this huge demand, leading to a burst of new construction. With population anticipated to grow, new home builders are pushing inventory onto the market as fast as possible. We have a dearth of condominium projects, reportedly because of the Colorado construction defects laws.  Each year, we see legislators introducing bills to address this issue.

We are excited to see how this market changes with the classic battle of supply and demand. Call me with any questions about the market or to interview me about listing your home. You can reach me by email at Jon@AlarisProperties.com or by calling me at 303-907-7668.


 
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